Detroit Lions Offseason Lookahead
1-6 to 8-2. A lot of optimism. But a lot of expectations.
How will the Lions handle the upcoming offseason with everyone's eyes on them?
By Conor O'Connell | 8th of February, 2023
For Lions fans, the offseason is usually our time of year. It’s where we can scour mock drafts and catch up on highlights of the best college prospects as we look forwards to what players we could potentially get at the top of the board. This offseason, however, it’s different. Sort of. Instead of heading into draft season on the back of a disappointing season, we go into it with optimism. And not just optimism in that we might get an elite player at the top of the board, but because we finally have a team that feels like they might be going in the right direction.
Unlike in previous years where our high-value draft pick would have been a franchise cornerstone with the responsibility of turning this team around, this one feels like a bonus. Especially as it’s coming from the Rams, and not from our usual ineptitude. Trading away our most valuable player of the past twenty years finally paid dividends as we continue our rebuild (though is it really a rebuild if we never had anything built in the first place?).
There are plenty of good reasons to be positive going forward. We ended the season as one of the most in-form teams in the league, going 8-2 over our last ten games. Many of our players seemed to take a major step forward as the year went on. Our lord and savior Ben Johnson stated that he would return to the team. And perhaps our crowning achievement. Eliminating the Packers from postseason contention and potentially ending Aaron Rodger's career at Green Bay with a big fat L at Lambeau field.
Usually, at the end of the season, there’s only one team that gets the chance to be truly happy, and that’s the Superbowl winner. But this year you can add the Lions to the list. Going into the game at Lambeau, the Lions had no chance of making the playoffs as a result of the Seahawks victory over the Rams. The team had nothing to play for, and if anything, a loss would’ve been the better outcome going forward as it would have resulted in the Lions leapfrogging the Packers in the draft order. But any team led by Dan Campbell doesn’t understand the meaning of playing to lose, and the Lions went out against a team that had everything to play for and showed everything that makes this team exciting going forward.
Despite struggling to get going offensively, the Lions offense clicked in the season half, putting together two drives that resulted in touchdowns, along with another that sealed the game. Our much-maligned defense, which had been a crux for the team for a lot of the season, displayed how much it improved, by limiting the Packers to field goals in the first half and allowing Rodgers only two completions in the fourth quarter. The grit that Dan Campbell preached on Hard Knocks was on full display in front of a nationally televised audience, as the Lions outlasted, outfought, and outthought a Packers team with their season on the line. America knows what the Lions are all about now.
This final drive to seal the game encapsulated everything that the Lions were all about. When many teams would have run the ball and tried to run down the clock as much as possible, the Lions went for the throat. Three moments on that possession sums up the current Lions. Firstly, Dan Campbell’s decision not to accept an offsides penalty on 2nd & 1. A lot of people see our head coach as a typical meathead football guy, and his decision-making during his tenure has come under criticism, even as recently as his clock management going into the end of the first half. But in declining the penalty, he showed intelligence and calmness where many coaches would’ve taken the first down.
Secondly, you had the hook and ladder play, which will go down as the most iconic play of this game. Where many teams would have just run the ball twice on 2nd and 17 following a holding penalty, the Lions rams a trick play that showed the creativity and braveness that we’ve come to expect from the Campbell/Johnson offense. The play caught the Packers off guard and set the Lions up to finish the game.
This brings us to the third moment. 4th and 1 with the game on the line. You’ve got one the best short-yardage backs in football in Jamall Williams (who had just broken Barry Sanders single-season touchdown record that night), running behind what many consider one of the top offensive lines in the league, and all you need is one-yard. Surely you run it. Nope. The offense comes out in an empty set. Goff drops back. He hits an open DJ Chark. Green Bay's season is over. Back in his introductory press conference (yes, the one with kneecaps), Dan Campbell made a point of explaining that he’s not into systems. When you’re first introduced to Campbell you could be forgiven for thinking he’d be a typical ‘establish the run and assert dominance’ type of coach, but the reality is far from that. His system is much more pragmatic, and as he said during the aforementioned press conference, “If we can exploit a weakness, we’re going to do it”. And that’s what they did. Maybe if Quay Walker hadn’t pushed an official earlier in the game the play could’ve been different. But he did, and now the Lions can go into their offseason with the ghosts of Lambeu field lifted from their shoulders.
Lambeau field has never been a happy hunting ground for the Lions. Games against Rodgers-led Packers teams usually go one way. Before this game, Rodgers was 18-7 against Detroit, and Lions fans would’ve experienced the closest thing you can get to NFL-induced PTSD once a hands-to-the-face penalty nullified a Kerby Joseph interception, but this is a new Lions team. Or B.N.L (Brand New Lions) as r/detroitlions likes to say as opposed to our infamous moniker of, Same Old Lions. With success however, comes expectations (Though considering how a 9-8 season where we miss the playoffs is seen as a success should show you what Lions fans have had to deal with). The Lions, going forward, are now expected to be competing for playoffs and the NFC North going forward, especially as it looks like Rodgers has played his final game in Green Bay.
The Lions went 5 and 1 against the rest of the NFC North. Along with the Vikings, they’re in the best position to compete for the conference next year (again, assuming Rodgers goes), but by the end of the season, you’d struggle to find many who would’ve taken Minnesota over Detroit. Ever since TJ Hockenson was traded and went to ‘win some games’ the Lions have played better football, and going forward, should be favorites for the division in 2023.
A major reason behind this thinking is because, just like Dennis, we haven’t even begun to peak. A large portion of our best players hasn’t even turned 24 yet. Our receiving group is led by Amon Ra (23) who is already arguably the best non-Cooper Kupp slot receiver in the league. Jameson Williams (21) was barely included in his rookie year but did just enough to make people realize he’s capable of a touchdown on any given snap. Aidan Hutchinson (22) is our most valuable defender, and if only the second half of the season mattered, he would be a shoe-in for defensive rookie of the year. Peneii Sewell (22) is one of the best tackles in the league. The core of our team is incredibly young and will only get better as their bodies develop and this is a testament to Brad Holmes, as all of these players were taken under his tenure as GM. And luckily for us, he’s gonna be the person making the picks for the next 10 years (fingers crossed). So forgive me for feeling confident that he can build up a great team as the years goes by.
A major win for the Lions during the offseason was Ben Johnson announcing that he would return to the team, despite being considered one of the hottest head coaching prospects out there. Johnson has had a meteoric rise in the public sphere of the NFL, as before this past year, he was the Lions tight ends coach. But following the demotion of Anthony Lynn from play-calling duties, he saw his influence on the offense rise, and upon being elected the team's offensive coordinator, the Lions became one of the league's best offenses. And if you look around at the weapons he had at his disposal, you wouldn’t say he was playing with a loaded gun. Outside of Amon Ra, our next best receivers were DJ Charek, Kalif Raymond, and Josh Reynolds. Hardly box office names. Halfway through the season our top 10 drafted tight end, TJ Hockenson was traded away. Jared Goff was considered by many to be a lower mid-tier QB, unable to carry an offense, and needed smoke and mirrors to succeed. What Ben Johnson did have to work with, was one of the better o-lines in the league, with 4 out of the 5 starters, being considered as pro bowl caliber players, however, the rotation of that 5th player at right guard was enough of a detriment to the team that it caused Ben Baldwin to consider us a lower third unit in the league.
Despite these issues, Johnson was still able to orchestrate an offense that had the fourth most yards in the league, the fifth most points, had the best red zone scoring percentage in the league, and also broke a franchise record for the most tight-end touchdowns scored in a season, with Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra leading the way. And when you compare his roster talent to the teams around the Lions, you can see the disparity. Just what he’s capable of with a healthy Jameson Williams to play with let alone a loaded roster and a top 10 quarterback (sorry Goff, but I’ll get to you later).
The other side of the field is a different story. For the first half of the year, our defense wasn’t just bad, but it was on pace to be historically bad. Our record of 1-6 at the start of the season was a reflection of how much of a detriment our defensive side had on the team, as it rendered our electric offense pointless (which is ironic, because both sides resulted in a lot of points). The one game we won in that period, against the Washington Commanders, was due to our defense doing just enough to let us build a large enough first-half lead, but even then, they still gave up 27 points in the final two quarters. The game against Seattle was the biggest indictment, as the offense managed to put up 45 points and still lose, with our only stop in the entire game being a missed field goal. It was beginning to feel like the Lions were unlucky that DC Aaron Glenn didn’t secure a head coaching role elsewhere. Following the loss to Miami, defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant was fired from his position, a move very similar to the demotion of Anthony Lynn a season prior and one that seemed to have an effect on the defense going forward. They went from historically bad to just mediocre, and that was enough to see the Lions succeed down the stretch.
The jury is still out on Aaron Glenn going forward. While the sacking of Pleasant did improve the team's performance, Glenn was still the DC that presided over the league's worst defense for that stretch. And even following that the Lions did have some suspect moments on defense, such as Justin Jefferson going for over 200 yards, and the Panthers putting up over 300 rushing yards on us, which ultimately ended our playoff hopes. Granted, since he’s been hired, Glenn hasn’t had the most marquee talent to work with, as the majority of that side of the roster was stripped bare due to the players in it being catered to the Matt Patricia ‘patriots’ system that he was running (running right into the ground). This has resulted in the Lions putting a lot of draft stock into the defense with 10 of the 15 draft picks that Brad Holmes has made so far being used to bolster that side. So while efforts have been made to give Glenn talented players, a lot of them are still young and unproven. What is encouraging for Glenn though is that as the season progressed players did improve. Hutchinson was fairly ineffective to begin the season but concluded with being one of the NFL’s better edge defenders over the back half. The likes of Alim McNeill have begun showing their potential, and Jeff Okudah did have his best season in a Lions jersey (as low as that bar is). It remains to be seen though whether the Lions would benefit from Aaron Glenn being their head coach for a third season. Should they give him the chance to see if he can put it all together, or should the team take another swing at the bat and hope they strike gold. They went through this a few seasons ago when they gave Matt Patricia a third season, and while Glenn doesn’t seem to be as toxic to the defense as Patricia was, he also hasn’t shown anything particularly special in his time with the team.
I’m of the opinion that the Lions would be lucky to have the decision taken away from them and that another team hires Glenn to be their head coach. While Ben Johnson was encouraged to remain with the team, through the means of giving him a significant pay rise, I don’t see reports of the Lions doing this for Glenn, and I believe that that says it all.
If they do depart from Glenn, I just pray that Dan Campbell nails his coaching hire from the off and doesn’t have a third season where he needs to make adjustments halfway through the season. I’d prefer if we just hit the ground running (well, obviously).
Aside from worries about the defensive coaching staff, another point of debate amongst the fan base is the man under center; Jared Goff.
“Hey, that’s pro bowl quarterback Jared Goff to you”.
Yes, I get it, Goff had a good season. In fact, he had a great ending to the year. He finished the final nine games of the season without throwing an interception and currently holds the Lions franchise record for most passes thrown without one. Despite that, is Goff really the guy who can get the Lions over the hump and turn them into contenders? He’s certainly proved to be much better than I ever anticipated with us. I thought he was simply a paperweight attached to the Stafford deal, but he’s turned into a solid starter for us, and he’s become one of the leaders on the team. However, when you look at the dominant teams in the league over the past couple of years, one thing stands out with them, and that’s their quarterbacks. Only three years ago the Bengals were the number one pick in the draft. They took Joe Burrow and less than two years later they made a Superbowl. The year after, they made the conference championship game. That’s the difference a top-tier quarterback can have on a team. Jared Goff has been very good this year, but there’s no argument that he’s anywhere near that top tier. If Goff is our future franchise QB then we’ll be settling for him, instead of looking to improve. It’s eerily similar to our situation with Aaron Glenn, though he isn’t as proven as Goff has been.
Outside of having an elite QB, another way to become successful in the league is by building a great team around a quarterback on a rookie deal. The Eagles are playing in their second Superbowl in the past 5 years, and on both occasions, they’ve had cheap quarterbacks and surrounded them with talent. While Hurts has been very good this year, he’s not on the elite tier of QBs either, but they’ve played to his strengths and put him on a stacked team. The Lions are slowly but surely putting together a very good team. The majority of our draft picks have hit over the past two years, and with a few more we’ll be a contender. Which makes this year's draft so interesting. The Lions currently have the number 6 pick and are in a prime spot to take a quarterback. Brad Holmes made the point recently that it’s much easier to find a worse quarterback, than a better one, but that never stopped the likes of the Chiefs from replacing Alex Smith with Mahomes, or Tyrod Taylor with Allen, both of whom were taken at later picks, and both of whom were risky prospects. But a handful of years later, both teams are happier for it. Now I’m not saying we should be targeting Will Levis specifically, but if Brad Holmes and the scouting department consider any of these quarterbacks to have the potential to be elite, then they should consider drafting them. The Lions have an out in Jared Goff's contract this off-season. If they cut him, he’d only result in $10m in dead cap. At the same time, his value will never be higher, so the Lions could capitalize on his form and get some good draft picks for him.
Regardless, this offseason could be a pivotal moment in the future of the Lions franchise. We feel as if we’re on the verge of taking that next step toward becoming a perennial contender. Personally, I’d hope to see our regime take an aggressive approach to roster building, but whatever path they want to go down, I’ll trust them. If they think that Aaron Glenn and Jared Goff are the future of our team then I’ll follow them the entire way, because never have I felt so excited about a current Detroit Lions season than the next one coming up.